The impact of permanent energy price shocks on the UK economy
Published in Bank of England Working Papers, 2011
(with Ryland Thomas and Iain de Weymarn)
This paper outlines the properties of one of the models used at the Bank of England for analysing the impact of energy prices on the UK economy. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model that includes a variety of channels through which energy prices affect demand and supply. On the demand side we model household consumption of final energy goods (petrol and utilities) separately from other goods and services. On the supply side, we model the production of final energy goods and the way that they enter the production process of other goods and services. We calibrate the model using UK data and examine how the various channels in the model contribute to the responses to permanent energy price shocks of a similar magnitude to those observed in the recent data. We show the effects of such shocks have important implications for monetary policy.